Pneumonia: projected age-related needs for hospital services in Finland.

SIR—Data on pneumonia-related hospitalization days during 1972–93 were collected from the hospital discharge register and population records maintained by Statistics Finland, which covers the entire population of Finland (5 million). The need for hospital services for patients with pneumonia in the coming decades was then evaluated on the basis of population forecasts, age-structure and time-series models. In the age-structure model, the use of hospital services relative to age and sex was assumed to continue at the average level recorded between 1984 and 1993, and forecasts for the 21st century were made on the basis of population and age-structure changes. The time series model was based on the age-specific numbers of treatment days and periods recorded for 1972–93. The forecast for the 21st century was calculated with respect to population data, and predicted changes on the basis of the age-structure and the use of hospital services. For men, 12 519 pneumonia treatment periods were recorded in 1972 and 15 156 in 1993 (the figures for women being 8518 and 11 402, respectively). According to the forecast based on age structure, the number will increase by 34% by the year 2010 and 53% by 2020, while the time series model predicts rises of 40 and 60% (Figure 1). Among men aged over 64, the number of treatment periods will increase by 69% by the year 2010 and 124% by 2020 (52% and 90% for all those aged over 64 years), while the time series model gives increases of 81% by the year 2010 and 144% by 2020 (60% and 98% respectively for all those aged over 64 years). A total of 179 529 days of pneumonia treatment were recorded for men in 1972 and 164 437 in 1993 (the figures for women being 123 859 and 144 713, respectively). According to the forecast based on age-structure, the number of treatment days will increase by 43% by the year 2010 and 67% by 2020, while the figures for the time series model forecast are 45% and 58%, respectively. Likewise the number of treatment days among men aged over 64 years is predicted in the age-structure model to increase by 70% by the year 2010 and 125% by 2020 (53% and 89% for all people aged over 64 years), while the time series model suggests a rise of 69% among men over 64 years by 2010 and 112% by 2020 (53% and 73% for …